Has the COVID-19 Pandemic Affected Maritime Connectivity? An Estimation for China and the Polar Silk Road Countries

In light of about 80% international freight traffic carried by sea, maritime supply chains’ stability is pivotal to global connectivity. For over a year now, the transboundary mobility vessels and cargoes has been restricted diverse forms COVID-19 containment measures applied national governments, while lockdowns people, businesses, economic activities have significantly affected growth prospects various connectivity initiatives. This study investigates how pandemic-related public health, trade, market factors shifted patterns in Polar Silk Road (PSR) transport corridor between China, South Korea, Japan, Russia, four economies Northern Europe. The causality links Shipping Connectivity Index (SCI) number cases deaths, trade volumes with China rest world, price indexes minerals, fuels, food, agricultural products are revealed separately for eight countries thirty-five ports. algorithm built on consecutive application Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Phillips-Perron (PP) stationarity tests, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, Fully-Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) Dynamic (DOLS) robustness checks, Toda-Yamamoto test. Tight trade-connectivity recorded all locations along China-PSR 2015–2019, but 2020, relationships weakened. Bidirectional influences parameters demonstrate sector’s sensitivity safety regulations bring into focus role cargo shipping spread virus. authors’ four-stage approach contributes establishment methodology framework that may equip stakeholders insights potential risks course pandemic.